Adequacy Study for Belgium: the need for strategic reserve for winter 2017-2018


Today, Elia published its probabilistic analysis of Belgium’s adequacy for the winter 2017-2018. This analysis is an important element for the Federal Minister of Energy to take into account when making the decision regarding the need for a volume of strategic reserve.

Building on the improvements of last year, Elia has further enhanced its transparency and the interaction with its stakeholders. In that respect, two public consultations were organised prior to the realisation of this study. In addition, in agreement with the federal Minister of Energy and its administration, the study is published already today, advancing by six weeks the legal foreseen publication date.

Elia has calculated multiple sensitivities in addition to the base-case scenario in order to anticipate the widest range of likely situations as possible for the winter period 2017-2018.

Recent developments in Belgium and France reminded us that the energy landscape is undergoing continuous change and unexpected evolutions. Even though this report provides an outlook for the future, such recent developments cannot be neglected. Therefore, in addition to the ‘base-case’ scenario and its sensitivities, an alternative scenario was developed, combining these recent events.

Since it is the responsibility of the Federal Minister of Energy to finally decide upon the most likely scenario and the resulting need of strategic reserves, Elia can only recommend the Minister to consider the latest available information when taking her decision.

Comments on this report may be sent to Elia until 22 December 2016, 12h00 (by email to after which Elia will forward these remarks towards the Federal Minister of Energy and the Energy administration.