Adequacy study for Belgium: the need for strategic reserve for winter 2019-20
Today Elia has published its probabilistic analysis of Belgium’s adequacy for the winter 2019-20. This analysis is an important element for the Federal Minister for Energy to take into account when deciding on the required volume of strategic reserve.
After several interactions with stakeholders, Elia has brought a number of adjustments to the methodology used. In this report, a ‘low-probability high-impact’ sensitivity was considered on top of the base case scenario. This sensitivity mainly relates to the availability of the nuclear plants in Belgium and in France.
The Federal Minister for Energy will decide by 15 January 2019 upon the most likely scenario and the resulting need of strategic reserve.
Elia’s recommends the scenario incorporating low-probability events with a high impact, which leads to a margin of 400 MW for Belgium for next winter (2019-20). This scenario does not induce a need for constituting a strategic reserve for winter 2019-20. This recommendation reflects the improvement of the situation for Belgium compared to the situation considered in the November 2017 strategic reserve volume report for winter 2018-19, with the return to the market of the Seraing CCGT unit, the commissioning of the Nemo Link® interconnector and the minRAM20% rule.