Key priorities from Belgium’s Adequacy and Flexibility Study 2026-2036: continued implementation of the CRM, accelerated development of flexibility and clarity on the long-term energy mix

KEY FINDINGS

• The rate at which electrification occurs in Belgium will push the level of demand beyond the level of available capacity from 2028 onwards. However, the capacity remuneration mechanism (CRM) remains a cornerstone of Belgium’s adequacy strategy: it keeps vital thermal capacity online while driving investment in new low-carbon assets.  
• Flexibility is becoming critical on both the demand and supply side for managing increasing volatility and periods of oversupply. By unlocking end-user flexibility, a double win is created for consumers: lower system costs and lower electricity bills. 
• To complement the capacity secured by the CRM and close the supply gap in the long-term, additional levers could be mobilised, such as the lifetime extension of nuclear units or the construction of new units; an increase in offshore wind capacity, cross-border interconnectors; or a structural reduction in demand. 

BRUSSELS | To ensure that Belgium always has enough electricity to cover its consumption, Elia has released its fifth adequacy and flexibility study, which covers the period 2026–2036. The latter shows that electrification and digitalisation are triggering a transformation of the Belgian electricity system. While adequacy is ensured in the short term (thanks to the current CRM mechanism and the lifetime extension of nuclear units), additional capacity will be needed from 2028 onwards to maintain the country’s security of supply. The CRM therefore remains a critical pillar for securing both existing and new capacity. However, complementary structural measures could be considered to safeguard long-term reliability. A critical enabler of the ongoing transition is the accelerated development of flexibility across the entire Belgian energy system. From consumer-side response and storage to controllable renewables, flexible resources are essential for managing volatility, ensuring grid stability, and making efficient use of surplus levels of renewable generation. With the right regulatory enablers (such as real-time pricing and digital tools), smart flexibility could deliver €350 to €500 million in annual savings for the system by 2036, while helping consumers to significantly lower their electricity costs.


"The facts are known, the levers have been identified, and there is political will to shape a long-term energy vision for our country. Delivering on this vision will require the continued implementation of the CRM, an acceleration of the development of flexibility - both on the demand and generation side - and greater clarity about long-term choices for the energy mix. Achieving this will require coordinated and sustained efforts from all actors: public authorities, regulators, grid operators, producers, market participants, industrial players, and citizens. We sincerely hope that this report will act as a meaningful contribution to the upcoming discussions that will be held about the shaping of Belgium’s future energy policy. Delivering on this collective commitment is now our shared priority.”
Frédéric Dunon, CEO of Elia Transmission Belgium