Public consultation on the daily prediction of non-contracted balancing energy bids


Elia launches a public consultation on its study on the daily prediction of non-contracted balancing energy bids. The objective of this study is to analyze if the volume of available non-contracted balancing energy bids for the next day can be predicted in order to facilitate a dynamic calculation of the balancing means. The study contains: 

  • the detailed description of the developed prediction methods ; 
  • the results of the final comparative analysis based on the selected performance criteria ;
  • the conclusions and an implementation roadmap.

Following this consultation, the report will be finalized and published by Elia.


In line with Article 228 of the Belgian Federal Grid Code, Elia determines the dimensioning rules for Frequency Restoration Reserves or ‘FRR’ (also referred to as aFRR and mFRR). The last years, Elia focused on the implementation of dynamic dimensioning methodologies, i.e. calculating the reserve capacity needs for the next day based on the expected system risks.

With this study, Elia is widening the scope to the calculation of the volumes of balancing means to cover the reserve capacity needs. Up to now, these were covered by means of a ‘static’ calculation of the available non-contracted balancing energy bids, reserve sharing and balancing capacity. While the methodology currently in place meets all legal requirements, Elia investigates with this study the possibility to predict the available non-contracted balancing means for the next day. This could facilitate the development of a dynamic calculation of the balancing capacity of the next day, based on expected reserve capacity needs, and availability of non-contracted balancing means.


Elia invites the stakeholders to provide comments and suggestions on the consulted document via the online form below during the consultation period from Friday October 1, 2021 to Monday November 1, 2021.

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