29 November 2018

Adequacy study for Belgium: the need for strategic reserve for winter 2019-20

Today Elia has published its probabilistic analysis of Belgium’s adequacy for the winter 2019-20. This analysis is an important element for the Federal Minister for Energy to take into account when deciding on the required volume of strategic reserve.

After several interactions with stakeholders, Elia has brought a number of adjustments to the methodology used. In this report, a ‘low-probability high-impact’ sensitivity was considered on top of the base case scenario. This sensitivity mainly relates to the availability of the nuclear plants in Belgium and in France.
The Federal Minister for Energy will decide by 15 January 2019 upon the most likely scenario and the resulting need of strategic reserve.
Elia’s recommends the scenario incorporating low-probability events with a high impact, which leads to a margin of 400 MW for Belgium for next winter (2019-20). This scenario does not induce a need for constituting a strategic reserve for winter 2019-20. This recommendation reflects the improvement of the situation for Belgium compared to the situation considered in the November 2017 strategic reserve volume report for winter 2018-19, with the return to the market of the Seraing CCGT unit, the commissioning of the Nemo Link® interconnector and the minRAM20% rule.
Marleen Vanhecke
Head of Communication & Reputation Elia Group
This website uses cookies to provide you with an optimal browsing experience. Some cookies are strictly necessary for the operation of this website and cannot be rejected, while others are used for analytical/functional/targeting purposes and can be rejected. For more information, please consult ourCookie Policy . You can manage/change your cookie preferences at any time. If you do not manage your preferences, only the cookies which are strictly necessary will be accepted.