Public consultation on the System Imbalance forecast and evaluation of its publication

Topic

Elia is organizing a public consultation on the System Imbalance (SI) forecast and evaluation of its publication. The project consists in selecting, training and implementing a data mining type model (such as ARIMA, neural network, Support Vector Machine...) to predict the system imbalance and then testing it in parallel run in different system conditions. The project also includes an analysis of the relevance of making this representation of system imbalance (SI) available relevant stakeholders.

The report consulted here contains:

  • A description of the different data mining types and a description of the KPIs used to select the most suited model.
  • An evaluation of the linear regression model under different conditions.
  • An evaluation of the relevance of the publication of the SI forecast complemented with a publication proposal in terms format and time horizon.

The consultation report contains 10 questions on which Elia would like to receive feedback during this consultation.

Context

The System Imbalance is a key indicator for the state of the system as it shows the difference between the Area Control Error (ACE) and the activated ancillary services (NRV). This makes the SI is a key decision making factor – along with others - for the activation of (additional) balancing reserves. Hence, having the ability to accurately predict the SI of the future quarter-hours may improve the overall decision-making process for the activation of balancing reserves. This is especially relevant for the accession to the future balancing platform (MARI and PICASSO) where the activation lead time will increase. Furthermore, this project allows a greater understanding of the different drivers of the System Imbalance.

Consultation period

Elia invites all stakeholders to submit any comments and suggestions they may have on the documents submitted for consultation.

The consultation period runs from 31 August 2021 to 30 September 2021.

After the consultation period, Elia will analyze and integrate in a consultation report the collected reactions from the market parties as well as Elia’s responses to them. Elia will publish on its website this consultation report together with the reactions of the market parties (including names) that are not explicitly indicated as confidential.

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