Public consultation on the methodology, the basis data and scenarios used for the study regarding the adequacy and flexibility needs of the Belgian power system for the period 2024-2034 and including also the scenario parameters for the "Low Carbon Tender" 2024-25

Context

This study is part of the Electricity Act, article 7bis, §4bis, which states that (Elia’s translation into English): "No later than 30 June of each biennial period, the system operator shall carry out an analysis of the needs of the Belgian electricity system in terms of the country’s adequacy and flexibility for the next ten years. The basic assumptions and scenarios, as well as the methodology used for this analysis, shall be determined by the system operator in collaboration with the Directorate General for Energy and the Federal Planning Bureau and in concertation with the regulator."

The documents submitted to this public consultation are:

• A general document detailing the context, generalities, and assumptions of the central scenario;
• A document for the scenario of the 2024-25 tender;
• An Excel file containing all assumptions proposed as part of the central scenario of the study;
• 9 methodological appendixes:
  • Unit Commitment and Economic Dispatch;
  • Adequacy study;
  • Adequacy patch;
  • Climate years;
  • Cross-border exchange capacities;
  • Hourly electricity consumption;
  • Economic viability assessment;
  • Methodology for the assessment on short-term flexibility;
  • Assumptions for the assessment of short-term flexibility; 
• 4 external studies on different aspects of the study:
  
  • The AFRY study on: "Update of the peer review of “Cost of capacity for calibration of Belgian CRM";
  • The study from N-SIDE on "Study on the outage parameters of generation units and DC links";
  • The DELTA-EE study on "Study on the quantification of Belgian residential and tertiary future consumer flexibility";
  • The study from Professor K. Boudt on "Analysis of hurdle rates for Belgian electricity capacity adequacy and flexibility analysis over the period 2024-2034".

This consultation aims at receiving any comment from market participants on these data and the methodology as well as any suggestion on possible sensitivities on the central scenario but also feedback regarding the scenario parameters for the "Low Carbon Tender" 2024-25.

Consultation period

Stakeholders are kindly requested to provide their comments and suggestions to Elia within one month from the start of the consultation. Feedback is expected by Monday 28 November 2022 at 6pm.

In case of questions, please contact taskforce.CRM@elia.be.